And we want to be as structured and as consistent as possible with this process. They're thinking they're going to trade around the position and hope to get out higher. Buy the SPY on the open and sell on the same da y s close '. And the research we've done confirms why so many of these professionals like to use this phrase. You'll see strategies and methods which you've likely never seen before, all of which are statistically backed by more than a decade's worth of research.
Download PDF Day Trading for Beginners Day Trading Strategies and Basics to Make a Profit Investing FULL FREE [Download PDF] Short Term Trading Strategies That Work Uploaded by Patricia McCoy on August 6, at pm.
Day Trading Futures for Dummies
Your input was invaluable and greatly appreciated. Nor were there any books or courses available that showed the path to be able to do this.
Money was not the problem. I was fortunate enough to have been hired by Merrill Lynch in when the Dow was at Seven years later, I reached my goal. On Monday, March 4, got up at 5 o'clock i. I had begWl my first day of professional tradjng. It ,"vas a scary thought for someone who didn't want to spend his life wearing a white shirt and blue tiC', especially since I had a family to provide for, including my two young daughters.
Jump ahead to today and the world is very much different. It's good in thai there is an abtmdance of information on how to trade. Sometimes I think it's everywhere. And if someone doesn't vvant to take the time to learn how to trade, they can turn on the television and have the stock picks fed to them all day long.
Another part of the good is the advanced ability to quantify strategies. When I was teaching myself how to trade, I quantified by hand. What used to take dClYs to test, today takes minutes. And now my research process is simpler and more efficient with my Director of Research being one of the peopte who helped Microsoft further create and build out Excel in the 's.
TIle not so good news is that many of the edges I saw i. Markets have become more efficient. In you could sit in front of a Bloomberg screen, and if you were patient enough YOLI could catch important news stories each day that were released by Bloomberg minutes before Dow Jones reported them. And considering that at the time, most institutions relied upon Dow Jones News, you simply had to disseminate the news, make the trade and you would often be rewarded vvithi.
Not a bad way to make a living. Today though, that advantage is gone. Another way to go about it is to do dS many good traders were doing at the time. Keep a list of good stocks, especially REITs with rising dividends, and wait for a retail trader to dump somc of their holdings. The specialist would take the stock down ou,. All you had to do was stE'P in front of the bid and place a stop just under the bid. TIlis game used to drive the bigger players crazy. But for nimble individual traders, it was the 's version of an ATM.
I could share with you many of these strategies. But what worked then is not always relevant to what works today. And even though there is no guarantee of future performance, the hope is that they will continue to work for years to comc. That type of trading skill is tmparalleled. Tony and his team are some of the more successful options traders in the world. Many options traders succeed for a few years.
The one thing these people have in common is that they know 'what it's like to trade from a position o f strength. Each has the institutional and floor experience to fully understand that in order to consistently make money from the market, they want to buy into the selling and sell into the buying.
The statistics and the strategies YOll will find in this book, further confirm this. Through my books and our TradingMarkets website, I've gotten the opportunity to witness many traders take our research, apply their own tmique touches, and make it even better. Many of these traders have gone on to start their own trading and money management finns. Introduction 5 I've learned that people trade for many reasons. The goal of making money is obviously an important part of that reason.
But I believe it goes even further than that. It's a game with a fixed set of rules, but with the pieces always moving. When I started trading in college in the late 70's, there were only stocks, and a few commodities. A few years later when I joined Merril l Lynch, the Dow was at and there was no such thing as index futures. Today, the markets have become global and the exchanges have transformed themselves from government controlled entities into publicly traded corporations whose mantra is growth through teclmology and new product development.
It's capitalism at its best and it continues to offer us the ability to play a game that gets better every day. The follmving chapters are a combination of market philosophy, market psychology, and market strategies. They encompass many markets and can be applied both in the United States and abroad.
Philosophically, [ live ill the world of reversioll to the mean wllell it comes to trading. J didn't come up with that idea. It's been around for decades. What I h ave done though is aUempt to quantify it. It's one thing for someone to give you a handful of ruJesand say "trust me, this works.
In my book How Mnrkl! We shmved hovv buying the market after its dropped 6 Chapter 1 three days in a row outperformed the times that it had risen three days in a row. In chapter after chapter, it was shown statistically that bllyillg low alld sellillg Iligh out performed bllyillg high mId seIJing higher for sllort-tel'm tradillg.
In this book, we'll do the same and we'll go further. This book is not only about the statistics. Each of these teams relied upon the proper statistics to guide them and then properly applied them.
In this book, you'll get to do the same. You'll have the statistics in front of you and I'll teach you the ways to apply them. Here is how the book is laid out. First we'll look at certain behavior which is inherent in the marketplace. This behavior is not something that the mainstream press even begins to understand. You will learn that what seems to be logical and obvious is often , We'lJ then look at pullbacks and why they have worked.
We'll look at daily puHbacks, intra-day pullbacks and how One oscillator, the 2-period RSI, can help you identify when and how to trade these pullbacks. We'll then move onto the Strategies section. All of the strategies you will learn are backed by more than a decade's worth of research.
I'll share the rules to each of the strategies and their results with you. We'll then look closely at exits. Cetting into a trade is one thing. But the edges can be maximized with the proper exits.
We'll look at a handful of 'xit strategies and the statistics to verify that they're valid to use. We'll end this book with what may be the most important aspect to your trading success. We'll discuss real world situations that you'll be faced with for the rest of your trading life.
I hope you learn a great deal from the knowledge in this book. Now let's get started. What is it that iSII't workillg? Why did it all fllrll Ollt like this for me? I had so mlldl promise. I was , maybe 1I0t academically speaking, bllt It became very clear to lIle sitting Ollt there today, flwt every decision I've ever made, ill Illy ell tire life, has been wrong.
My life is the opposite of everything J wallt if to be. It's all beeH wrong. TlIl1a all toast, coleslaw, Clip of coffee. Well, there's tellillg what call happell frolll this. Good for the tuna. A blonde looks at George Elaine: All, George, YaH know, that womm1 just looked at you. What am I sllpposed to do? Go talk to Iter. Well here's YOllr chance to try the opposite. Yeah, I sllOlIld do the opposite, I shollld. How would you have done if you had been a breakout trader and bought every new period high as all the breakout traders were piling in, most of the money managers were likely adding to positions and the press was jumping up and down about how great things were , and used a trailing stop of exiting when prices closed under their period moving average?
You made good money. You paid for your kids' college, have lots of money to retire on and have a second home adjacent to the Spielberg family in the Hamptons. You outperformed buy and hold. The market tripled in value and you lost money. Question 2 Same assumption as above, but you did the e,'met opposite of what we have all been taught. You SOLD the market as it made new highs.
You put your face in front of a speeding train and shorted the market when the "smart" money was buying. How would you have done? Question 3 final question. Let's go a step further. You didn't buy any breakouts. You're a complete nut.
You only bought the breakdowns! You only bought when the market made new lO-day lows. How did you do? This will help you better understand the correct answers. By the time the stock market makes a new short-term high, there is likely an abundance of good news that has occurred over the past week. Solid economic reports, good earnings reports, upgrades on stocks, and more have all likely occurred. The world is looking very good during those times.
So what should stock prices do from there? So then "logically," the answer to the first question is a, b, or c. Well, the logic is wrong. We've all been taught and told to "buy strength.
Except in this case, you were right a whopping We've all been told to be mesmerized by lists that focus on today's new highs. Yet, reality is, it appears to be wrong. So the answer to Question 1 is that you did not beat buy and hold, you are unfortunately not a neighbor of the Spielberg family in the Hamptons, and you are also not a member of the Forbes Buying new highs lost money. You sold the new highs. So, how did you do? The results are the opposite of the breakout buyers you exited when the market crossed under its IO-period MA.
Who would have thought? We'll now move to Question 3. When the markets make lO-day lows, it almost always occurs while bad news is permeating the environment. Again, "logically," no reasonable person would be buying here, but again, the logical ones are very wrong.
Since , had you bought every lO-period low and exited when the market crossed above its lO-period moving average, you would have made But first let's remember that these are just statistical results that don't take into account trading costs, slippage, etc. With that said, here is what the past tells us: You don't blindly buy breakouts in the stock market.
Yes, the world looks great, yes the news is wonderful, and yes there's lots of excitement out there. But unless you have some superior exit strategy, you will likely have a very tough time making money buying the highs over the long run. If you didn't make money buying highs in the move since , it's going to be awfully tough to do it in the future. As the markets are making these highs, the odds are increasing that a short-term reversal is near.
You should be looking to lock in your trading gains as markets make new highs, not add new positions. Buying markets which pullback in this case, to to-day lows is a superior strategy. We strongly believe that. And the statistics throughout this book prove this out. Don't get caught up in the hype when markets make highs. The press and the investment community are jumping up and down telling us just how great things are during these times. That's why prices are at new highs. And on the opposite end, there is nothing but negative news near the lows.
A few days of incidental negative news is not a formula for the market crashing. The world-is-coming-to-an-end doom and gloom crowd use these few days to tell you why the market is going to zero and the end of mankind is near. Don't get caught up in this!
Because at the end of the day, when everyone is thinking the same way, they're usually wrong. And, as you can see from these statistics, this is especially true when it comes to the financial markets.
After the market has risen, everyone is jumping up and down and telling you how good things are and why prices are likely going higher.
After a hard drop, the doomsayers come in repeating over and over again why the market dropped and why it will likely continue to drop. As most of us have seen, these people are usually wrong. Because as we just saw in the previous chapter they are only repeating what the market already knows. And the market has already factored in much of the good news that's why it has risen and it has already factored in much of the bad news including the potential for future bad news.
By not buying the market or a stock right after it's risen a number of days in a row, and not selling or shorting a stock after it has dropped a number of days in a row. Here are the statistics to back this up: In conclusion, it's better for you to buy the market after it's dropped, not after it's risen!
You'll see people "bottom fishing" stocks as they are plunging lower under their day moving average the kiss of death is when a "growth stock" is referred to as a "good value".
Once a stock drops under its day moving average, all bets are off. It's better to be buying stocks in a longer term uptrend than in a longer term downtrend, and here's why. We looked at over 8 million trades of stocks from As you can see, the gains have been better above the day moving average. Most cataclysmic individual stock drops, over the past century, have occurred when the stock was under its Mday moving average.
From Enron to Bear Stearns, from the Internet stock collapses in M to the housing and brokerage stock collapses in , they were all at one time above the day MA, but eventually they all went under the day, preceding the immense losses. How many times did you watch analysts on TV tell you the stock was cheap as it dropped lower and lower?
And I can show you hundreds of examples that look like this. They all looked "cheap" along the way down. And they became cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. This rule is not fool-proof. Many good stocks represent real value below the day MA. But as a whole, without adding any other filters, it's easier and less stressful to make money when buying the market and stocks when the longer term trend is up, not down. We have many studies which support this theory. First, let's quickly define the VIX. Extreme market sell-offs are associated with extremely high VIX readings.
You will see this with lower than average VIX readings and these have historically been the times to lock in gains and even short the market. This is completely incorrect and J will go into this in more detail later in the book.
The proper way to use the VTX is to look at where it is today relative to its to-day simple moving average. On the other end of the spectrum, the lower it is below the lO-day moving average, the more the market is overbought and likely to move sideways-to-down in the near future. What does this mean for you? When fear is great and the VIX is high, we want to be buying. We'll go deeper into this in the Market Timing chapter.
If YOli look at any of my published work until , you will see the words "use stops" alongside most strategies. In early , we started running tests with the hope of identifying the optimal stop levels to use. What came back though was completely the "opposite" there's that word again of anything we ever imagined. A stock is above its day moving average and closes at a lO-day low.
Here are the resl1lts. The tighter the stop. Obviously, this does not happen all the time. But it does happen enough of the time to lessen the returns. I suspect this out. YOll also see this in your own trading. Also, for many people, stops are a psychological comfort zone. If they make you comfortable, use them. Just know that in the long run, they will potentially cost you money. So in 1 , i f you knew all this was going to happen over the next 1 3 years, how would you have traded the market?
There were landmines everywhere and many of these landmines occurred while the U. What would be the safest thing for you to do assuming you really wanted to be long the market? Would you say, 'Til only buy the market during the d.: Or in , would you have decided that you were going to buy the market on the close each day and sell it on the open?
Which path would have been the logical one to take? As you're beginning to see by now, the obvious answers to questions like these are usually wrong. Hard to believe, I know. Let's look at the following results: Buy the SPY on the open and sell on the same da y s close '.
It flies n i the fa. But as we've seen from each of these stu die successful trading often involves doing tlte opposite of what everyone e1: And unless you're trading ft the entertairunent, the edges lie in looking at the obvious and many time looking to do the opposite. It helps to have this philosophy. Healthy, Healthy Edges I strongly believe that markets behave more efficiently as a time period lengthens. This means that over the longer term, market participants are more able to assimilate market information and make rational decisions.
But, shorten the time period and this ability becomes lessened. The key here is that the greater the chaos, the greater the opportunity there is for stocks to become mis-priced leading to the potential for gains for those who are fast enough and smart enough to take advantage of this chaos. Stocks behave like this for one reason. Fear and irrational behavior. The stock drops dramatically and people start looking for some fundamental reason why.
And as we know, this is also what is known as reversion to the mean and pullback trading. On the opposite end of the spectrum, we see stocks that run up day after day, taking the company's value millions of dollars higher. Whenever I hear this my and even more oversold intra-day. We can all remember the many times these crazy bubbles have occurred and none better was in the summer of This customer and his business partner run money abroad and they were here in the United States to visit clients.
Does the date July 17, ring a bell to you? It was the first time the Dow crossed 14, Excitement was everywhere and the excitement was magnified by the 42 Chapter 8 Victoria Secret models CNBC was coincidently doing a story on at the same time. Wow, just think about it; the Dow is making all time highs; 1 4, for the very first time! This was fantastic, right? The four o f us were mostly in cash having sold into the market strength a few days earlier.
That's right, the market was running like crazy, everyone was making money and we were the only people not invited to the party! It was painful for a few days. But, as the statistics consistently show, these parties usually end. And this one ended far worse than anyone could have imagined. Shortly thereafter, the credit crisis took a serious toll on the U. And the next two lessons tie into how we want to trade overbought and oversold conditions.
On the way up, we want the Victoria Secret models on CNBC jumping up and down in excitement because the market is so, so exciting. And on the way down, we want money managers and investors to be puking Traaillg with Infra-aay Drops - Making Eages Evcl1 Biggcr 43 it up. Buy the fear, sell the greed. And as with most trading strategies we trade with, we have statistical evidence to back this up. Each of these stocks had closed at lO-day highs and was above their day moving average.
There has been very little edge to these "momentum" stocks. Stock closes at a IO-period high and is above its day simple moving average a momentum move in a longer term uptrend. Average volume over the past days is at least , shares per day.
Buy on the close. Exit on the close 5 trading days later. Buying day hjghs has been, on average, dead money for the next 5 days. Now let's see what happens if we climb aboard the same stocks as they continue to move higher. What we did was take these stocks and put in a limit, in order to "buy hitofu rther strength. Stock closes at a period high and is above its day simple moving average. Exit 5 trading days later.
When buying these strong stocks while they were rising even further during the day has on net basis been a losing proposition. Great looking stocks- bad looking trades.
Obviously strong stocks that are also moving strongly intra-day are not stocks with positive edges. We'll look at the stocks that are usually accompanied by "concerns" and "heavy selling. Test 2 - Buying into Further Weakness Intra-day 1. Stock closes at a 1 0-period low and is above its day simple moving average a pullback within a longer term uptrend. The Results Total Trades: First, the returns buying on day lows have been 10 times greater than day hjghs 0. Annualize these returns out and you will get an even better idea of how large these edges are.
And as its plunging intra-day, few of us have seen anyone coming onto television saying "Wow, GIGM looks awesome here! Few books or courses teach chart patterns like this some do, but they teach you to "avoid" or worse to "short" these stocks. Tradillg with 11Itra-day Drops - Makillg Edges Evl'll Bigger 51 As you are learning, reversion to the mean in short-term trading of stocks has had healthy edges for many years.
And these edges are even greater intra-day when the stretch gets pulled far from the mean. But the excitement from these highs will always be there for you to take advantage of. I 'm now going to introduce to you an oscillator which is the backbone of many of the strategies I'll be sharing with you. The Relative Strength Index RSI , when applied correctly, is one of the strongest indicators available to equity traders.
There are a number of books and articles written about the RSI, how to use it, and the value it provides in predicting the short-term direction of stock prices. Unfortunately, few, if any, of these claims are backed up by statistical studies. This is very surprising considering how popular the RSI is as an indicator and how many traders rely upon it. Most traders use the period RSI. But our studies have shown that statistically, there is no edge using the period RSI.
First, here's some background on the RSI and how it's calculated. Welles Wilder in the 's. Tt is a very useful and popular momentum oscillator that compares the magnitude of a stock's recent gains to the magnitude of its recent losses.
Put simply, the higher the RSI reading the more overbought the stock is, and the lower the reading the more oversold the stock is. You can change this default setting in most charting packages very easily but if you are unsure how to do this contact your software vendor.
But, we know that at least looking back more than a decade, the better wayto use it is by shorteningthe period. We looked at over eight million trades from January 1, to December 31, These numbers represent the benchmark which we use for comparisons. We then compared these results to the benchmarks and here's what we found: When looking at these results, it is important to understand that the performance imp roved each step of the way.
The lower the RSI. The average returns of stocks with a 2-period RSI reading below 2 were greater than those stocks with a 2-period RSI reading below 5, etc. This memls traders should look to begi" building strategies around stocks with 2-veriod RSI readings below The higher the RSI.
Aggressive Imders a11 look to build short seflillgstrate'lies around these stocks. And, these results can be improved even further by buying the low RSI stocks the next day on further pullbacks as we saw in the last chapter and by combining the 2-period RSI with PowerRatings which you can find on the TradingMarkets website.
Allegheny Technologies ATI l f TradingMarkets provides a daily list of stocks that have a 2-period RSI below 2 bullish and another daily list of stocks that have a 2-period RSI above 98 bearish. You can find a list of these stocks everyday on the TradingMarkets.
Now, let's look at two strategies you can apply using the 2-period RSI. The Results From Number of Signals: Three Trading Days Here are three consecutive set-ups from Strong sell-off in the market and the 2-period RSJ drops under 5. Lock in the Lock in the gains four days later on the rally higher.
Stocks, ETFs, and other market indices all show edges using these few simple rules. Let's now look at a more advanced strategy to apply the 2-period RSI. What I'd like to do now is share with you one strategy which has never before been publicly published. The strategy was taught in-depth only to members of our Swing Trading College and l'd like to share it with you now.
The strategy you will ieam here is called Cumula tive RSls. Unless you have attended our Swing Trading College or are reading this book long after it was first published , this strategy will likely be new to you. What are Cumulative RSls? They're a running day total of 2-Period RSI readings.
This means that by adding up the past number of days of 2period RSI readings, you get its cumulative reading. When we first looked at this concept, we were pleasantly surprised by the results. As we went deeper, we saw the results to be even more robust than we first imagined.
We saw positive healthy returns in U. In my opinion Cumulative RSls are special and you can take this research, trade it and apply it n i many parts of your trading. The security being used is above its 20D-day moving average.
Use a 2-Period RSJ. Take the past X days of the 2-period RSJ and add them up. Exit when the 2-period RSI closes above 65 you can also exit using any of the exit strategies taught later in the Exits chapter.
Let's now look at some results and then a few chart examples. We ran the test results on the SPYs from the inception of their trading in mid-January through December 31, a period of almost 15 years.
Whenever this happens, the results usually drop some- 68 Chapter 9 times significantly so this is where you start seeing how robust a methodology is. What we did was we kept X at 2, meaning we used a 2-day cumulative RSI total. But we changed Y to 50, meaning the 2-day total only had to add up to Here are the results. And it was correct What's interesting is that when we ran these tests on other U. ETFs, and over a dozen world indices some going back to the 80's , we saw consistently strong results throughout.
Let's now look at the charts of a few Cumulative RSI set-ups. The past two days' RSI totals under You can also see the panic. The market rallies over 20 pOints higher and we exit.
Indices and ETFs do not go to zero. Stocks can and sometimes do. The average gain on these stocks was nearly four times greater than the gains for all stocks for the same holdingperiod.
In my opinion, it's pretty close. It does a solid job of identifying markets that are extremely overbought and oversold on a short-term basis. From there it can be lIsed many ways including the ways we just looked at and the many other combinations of ways that I mentioned in this chapter.
In How Markets Really Work and throughout this book, I showed you how when the markets pullback, they have outperformed the times that the market has broken out. We can demonstrate this many different ways and in this chapter, I'm going to share with YOli a simple strategy using this concept.
And the best thing about this strategy, known as the Double 7'5 Strategy, is that it only has three rules. The SPY is above its day moving average 2. If the SPY closes a t a 7-day low, buy. If the SPY closes at a 7-day high, sell your long position. You're probably thinking to yourself tlwt's it? We did the same. But here are the results since the inception of the SPYs in Here is what the set lip looks like. This same concept holds up in the Nasdaq too. QQQQ 7-day closing low - buy.
Double 7's Strategy 79 And we can take the Double 7's Strategy to other countries too. Here are the results for China using the FXls since their inception of trading through the end of They all hold up well in the testing. They also hold up in the majority of the equity ETFs as of Three hundred years ago the Spanish philosopher Baltazar Gracian said "If brief, good. It looks like they do. This behavior was first brought to my attention in by Kevin Haggerty who I mentioned earlier n i the book.
Kevin was the head of trading for Fidelity Capital Markets for seven years and when he says something about market behavior, I've learned to listen. We then broke these trades down to the day of the month, 84 Chapter 11 meaning we asked "if we bought every stock today, how would we have done over the next five trading days?
Here are some notes of our findings: The average gain for all days meaning you randomly bought a stock and held it for five days when it was above its 2oo-day MA from January December was 0. J've bolded the days that did double this return.
The average gains rise significantly. On the 23rd day of the month, the average gain for these stocks nearly double. On the 24th, it more than triples.
On the 25th it nearly quintuples! And this type of behavior holds through for an additional 5 days. Money spent is money spent, and it looks like the fund managers spent their money near the end of the previous month. Let's look at what happens after a stock drops the previous day. The returns for those stocks increase even further near month's-end. On the 25th and the 26th, the stocks which have dropped two days in a row have risen on average more than 1.
If you annualize that out, it's pretty obvious one can make a nice living with returns like these. And, stocks which have dropped a day or two near the end of the month have out-performed the averages even more. The fund managers like to buy near month's end, and it looks like they especially like to buy stocks as cheap as possible near month's end. Today, the VIX is widely cited.
I could have taken many strategies to show at that time. But again, I wanted to show everyone something that was new. The good news was that I was one of the first and possibly file first trader to teach people how to apply the VIX to time the market. The bad news was that I was dead wrong with my research. Fortunately I was quick to see why 1 was wrong. At the time, I originally viewed the VTX as a above 13; static indicator. Buy the market when the VIX goes sell when it gets under 9.
Incredibly, ]3 years later authors and publications including the Wall Street Journal in July are still writing articles applying the VIX on a static basis.
Possibly one of the bigger mistakes I saw was when a well known trader and fund manager published his study that showed that whenever the VIX hit 30, buy the market.
And short the market when the VIX got below Unfortunately, the sample size was very small but no one paid much attention to that. It was close to perfect until the VIX went under 20 in and stayed under it for approximately 5 years. Thank YOll, but no thank you.
In fact, most if not all volatility n tors are dynamic indicators. What does this mean? It means that volatility is always adjusting. And if volatility is always adjusting, so should your volatility indicators a lesson that in hindsight many fund managers and bank trading desks wish they applied in the summer of 2 Let's now jump ahead and look at two VIX market timing strategies along with three other strategies you can apply to your trading. Each of these studies are from and give market timing signals that have been correct on the long side, on average, approximately 4 out of every 5 times signaled.
Now let's take this knowledge and place it into a systematic strategy we can use. Lf this occurs, we'll buy the market on the close. Under Five Days The average gain per trade and the percent correct are high. Even though the number of times this has occurred is low, I encourage you to take the research yourself and grow with it. Let's now look a t an example. O Mov Avg 1 Line.. Exit as the 2-period RSI closes above First, let's look at the rules, then we'll look at the results followed by some examples.
Here are the rules: I like using the SPY to guide the market timing signals as it's more dynamic than an index. For those of you who want to keep things simpler, use the SPX. The test results are basically the same. The 2-period RSI of the SPY is below 30 further telling us that stock prices have been weak and the market is oversold. X 2, Buy the market on the close.
There are many, many strategies you can use by applying the VIX to the market. What 1 find 50 interesting about this is that very few people have been able to quantify the use of the TRIN. It's referred to in numerous books and articles, yet few have shown whether or not it really has any sort of predictive ability.
The good news is that it does. We have found a number of ways to use the TRlN which are backed by statistical results and in this book I'll share one of them with you. The formula is as follows: The 2-period RSI of the market is below 50, signifying the market is at least a bit oversold. The TRIN closes above 1. When the three rules are met, buy on the close. Four rules and rule number three is the key rule.
Let's look at the results from Under Four Trading Days. These four rules have been consistently profitable every year but one with only showing a loss just 5. Buy the market on the close. First i t can be traded as is. Second, it's to broaden your thinking with the TRIN. The TRIN should not be used on a daily basis as a standalone indicator.
It does however have edges at specific market extremes. As we saw, the lower the Cumulative RSI, the bigger the historical edge has been. Because multiple days of low RSI readings, especially above the 2DD-day identifies markets that are potentially washed out. And we all know that washed out markets tend to lead to some of the biggest edges time after time.
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Short Term Trading Strategies That Work By Larry Connors, Cesar Alvarez — Download
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