Commodity Forum

Smaller companies rose following signs of sustained economic growth and reports that more tariffs on Chinese goods So let us be extremely clear here. Subscriptions Futures Trading Education. As you can imagine, things can get rather complicated! A lot of traders have mentioned to me in previous system releases that they really wish I had integrated an auto email alert feature, whereby you are instantly alerted via email that a signal has been generated. Look for this market to remain weak. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek for advices from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Weekly Technical Forecast: EURUSD Awaits Its Break Cue while Aussie and Equities Continue Their Slide. We have transitioned out of the liquidity trap of Summer trading conditions, but that hasn’t put us immediately back on the path of a clear trend for the FX and capital markets.

The Following 8 Users Say Thank You to yulbang111 For This Useful Post:

From a technical standpoint, the euro looks set to rise over the next 5 — 6 hours. As part of my weekly forecast, I expect to see the pair recover to around 1. The euro crosses provide a mixed picture. The euro is trading up on some of them, and down on others. Under these conditions, the euro could revisit the 67th degree at 1. The majors are all trading down against the US dollar, except for the yen, which is enjoying increased demand.

I think this is a result of a reduced appetite for risk among market participants. This could be either down to expectations of further interest rate hikes in the US, or increased trade tensions between the US and China. You can use to best online forex trading software in alpari. Please consider registering guest. Login name Password Remember me Register Lost password? Inflation and interest rates also play a major role in Euro dollar trading.

Higher inflation with lower GDP Growth will weaken a currency in the long run. While the prospect of higher interest rates with similar GDP Growth will strengthen a currency compared to a currency with stable or lower outlook for interest rates.

It is necessary, therefore, to keep track of GDP Growth, unemployment and inflation. This website is particularly useful as it allows you to compare historical data for one country against another. For medium term traders, who hold positions for days or weeks, these charts are essential to get a good idea of the underlying fundamentals for each currency.

For day traders, there are a series of data releases from the US and Europe that allow for a potential increase in volatility, which can provide for trading opportunities. Possibly the most important day of the month is Non-Farm Payrolls day.

This data is the job creation number for the whole of the US and is greatly anticipated on the first Friday of every month at The importance of this number in indicating how well the economy is performing means that any surprises from the forecast can cause large moves in price. Sometimes, these price moves may last only a few minutes or hours, so timely execution is critical. Higher interest rates will typically have positive, or bullish, effect on a currency, at least short term.

On the other hand, a decrease in interest rates will usually see a currency depreciate short term. This is explained by the fact that under like for like circumstances investors will prefer to hold a currency that pays higher interest than one that pays less, and many large institutions and hedge funds take advantage of these interest rate differentials thru currency carry trades.

The European Central Bank ECB meets, more or less, twice a month, where one meeting is scheduled as being a monetary policy meeting. The Fed meets, more or less, once a month. Although the Fed meetings are potentially open to producing a change in monetary policy, changes usually only occur in March, June, September or December, which is when the Fed chair holds a press conference and issues a speech on monetary policy.

This means that if a change in interest rates were made, it would be easier to communicate the reasons behind the change, and the assessment for future changes in the coming months. Central bank policy meetings and the subsequent press statements can also increase volatility and may present shorter term traders an opportunity to jump on an emerging trend. If the policy statement uses wording that was not expected or seems to be hinting at a change in monetary policy, the EURUSD price can change rapidly within the space of a few minutes.

As the EURUSD currency pair is the most traded in the world, there are a large number of traders watching every important economic data release or monetary policy meeting that can affect its exchange rate.

The data is available to everyone at virtually the same time. The ease of access to data means that surprises in data, more usual in US data, or changes in monetary policy can create large movements in price. As with any technical strategies, these are not fool-proof, but rather, should be used as a starting point from which to build on your own ideas. The first strategy we are going to look at is the Three moving average cross-over.

With each successive bar, it then takes the next 21 days and calculates the average close price, creating an average of price over the preceding 21 days.

This strategy then creates two more moving averages, one with a longer period than 21, and another with a shorter period than A popular combination is the 55 and 13 period, coupled with the 21 period. As the day moving average crosses, from below, above the day and day moving averages, it creates a buy signal.

The buy signal is only confirmed once the day signal also crosses above the day moving average. From the EURUSD chart above you can see that the strategy does not tend to do very well when markets are moving sideways. In the two pink rectangles, the EURUSD price traded within a substantially wide range, but still traded horizontally with no real trend in either direction. We can see how, after the first pink rectangle from the left, the strategy gave a sell signal in October , which led way to a bear trend until the end of Price then started trading sideways in large swings through to April , second pink triangle.

By the end of April , we can see the strategy signalled a new bull trend. The numbers for the periods of each moving average can be optimized, but traders need to be careful of curve fitting the data. In addition, the longer the time frame, the more accurate this strategy tends to be, leaving it best suited for trading on daily charts.

In any case, when the market is moving sideways, this type of trend following strategy will tend to give many false signals. The next strategy we will look at is the Breakout strategy, also well-known and usually profitable when executed with discipline. This strategy can be used on any time frame, but it needs the formation of a tight rectangle chart pattern. This formation is more common on the minute and 1-hour candle charts and is, therefore, best suited to these time frames.

The use of the exact time frame is a personal matter; however, keep in mind that the minute chart will give you more opportunities but it is more likely to give more false signals, whereas the 1-hour chart will give you less opportunities but will result in less false signals. The strategy is simple; you would look for rectangular shaped formations — these usually occur during the less volatile hours of the trading session, late New York afternoon and during the Tokyo session.

When the candle body closes above the range, it creates a buy signal, and when it closes below the range it creates a sell signal. From the above EURUSD 1-hour chart, we can see the various green rectangles which identify periods of sideways price action.

EUR/USD recent moves

EUR/USD Daily Price Forecast – EUR/USD Stable above Handle Ahead of US NFP Update The EUR/USD rose to a high of yesterday on the back of a . EUR USD Live Analysis provides the latest technical analysis of the EUR/USD (Euro Dollar). You may find the analysis on a daily basis with forecasts for the global daily trend. EUR/USD Forecast, Technical Analysis, Outlook preview of the main events that move Euro/dollar. €/$ is the most popular currency pair.